Posts Tagged ‘blackjack’
June 14th, 2009 | 
Author: The Snyder Profit Index does not evaluate profit potential for those players whose cultivated "acts" allow them to use betting spreads of greater than 1 to 12 units. As for games that rate between 35 and 50, they will almost always turn a long run profit—but due to either the slight advantage or crowded conditions, earnings will be very slow. High stakes players may find games that rate in the upper thirties and forties profitable enough for their purposes.
Now let's use the SPI to analyze some commonly available games in this country. Single- and double-deck games are analyzed at shuffle-points of 50%, 67%, and 75%, and at betting spreads of 1-2, 1-4, and 1-8 units. The six- and eight-deck games are analyzed at shuffle-points of 67%, 75%, and 80%, and at betting spreads of 1-4, 1-8, and 1-12 units.
Each entry has three numbers separated by slashes—for instance, the first entry (1-2 spread) for the 50% dealt, single-deck, Downtown Vegas (HI7) game reads -2/28/58. This means that with a full table, the SPI is -2 points; half-full, the SPI is 28 points; and heads-up the SPI is 58 points. So, unless you can play head-to-head with the dealer, and get away with using a 1-2 betting spread with a positive count, the game is a waste of time. You'll need deeper penetration or a bigger spread to make money in this game.
VEGAS DOWNTOWN (H17) ONE-DECK
1-2 SPREAD 1-4 SPREAD 1-8 SPREAD
50% DEALT
-2/28/58 8/38/68 18/48/68
67% DEALT
30/60/90 40/70/100 50/80/110
75% DEALT
50/80/110 60/90/120 70/100/130
RENO (H17, D10/11) ONE-DECK
1-2 SPREAD 1-4 SPREAD 1-8 SPREAD
50% DEALT
-22/8/38 -12/18/48 -2/28/58
67% DEALT
10/40/70 20/50/80 30/60/90
75% DEALT
30/60/90 40/70/100 50/80/110
VEGAS DOWNTOWN (H17) TWO-DECK
1-2 SPREAD 1-4 SPREAD 1-8 SPREAD
50% DEALT
-7/11/30 0/18/37 6/24/43
67% DEALT
13/31/50 20/38/57 26/44/63
75% DEALT
24/42/61 31/49/68 37/55/74
RENO (H17, D10/11) TWO-DECK
1-2 SPREAD 1-4 SPREAD 1-8 SPREAD
50% DEALT
-23/-5/16 -16/2/21 -10/8/27
67% DEALT
-3/15/36
4/22/41
10/28/47
75% DEALT
7/25/47
14/32/53
21/39/58
Tags: blackjack, high stakes, online casino
Posted in 
Tags: To use the SPI, start by finding the column for the number of decks being shuffled together, then add and subtract points according to the crowd conditions, the shuffle-point, the rules, and the betting spread you intend to use. In estimating shuffle-points, the SPI offers four choices—50% penetration, 67% penetration, 75% penetration, and 80% penetration. Be conservative in your estimates; don't use the 80% value unless the shuffle point truly is quite a bit deeper than 75%. Remember, it's your money on the line, so proceed cautiously. In rating a game, use this barometer:
Above 50 a winner
0-50 table-hop only
Below 0 a time waster
Seek the game with the highest point value. If a game scores 50 or above, it will almost certainly provide a long-run profit for a card counter. In most cases, the SPI will accurately gauge the right game. In creating the SPI, my goal was to try and come up with an easy scoring system that would inform a player that his counting strategy in a particular game would yield at least a 1% advantage over the house, with enough hands per hour to make the game worthwhile. But do not attempt to use the SPI to discover your precise advantage as a "percentage;" the Index won't tell you that, as the crowd conditions automatically adjust the SPI for the increased hands per hour. If a game scores below 50 on the SPI, then you will probably not find it profitable to sit down and play. If you're going to play these games, you must table-hop to avoid negative counts.
THE SNYDER PROFIT INDEX
NUMBER OF DECKS
Ì 2 3,4 5, 6 7,8
Heads-Up +85 +50 +37 +30 +27
2-4 Players +55 +31 +21 +18 +16
5-7 Players +25 +13 +7 +4 +3
80% Dealt +35 +20 + 18 + 16 +14
75% Dealt +20 + 11 + 10 +9 +8
67% Dealt 0 0 0 0 0
50% Dealt -32 -20 -15 -13 -11
Early Surrender +55 +33 +26 +23 +21
Double After Splits + 10 +8 +6 +5 +4
Late Surrender +12 +9 +7 +6 +5
No Re-Splits -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Stands Soft 17 0 0 0 0 0
Hits Soft 17 -15 -12 -10 -9 -8
Double Any Two 0 0 0 0 0
Double 10/11 Only -20 -16 -14 -12 -11
No Insurance -50 -34 -24 -20 -18
No Hole Card -9 -7 -5 -4 -3
(European)
1-2 Spread +20 + 12 +8 +6 +5
1-4 Spread +30 +19 + 14 + 11 +9
1-8 Spread +40 +26 +20 + 16 +13
1-12 Spread +50 +33 +26 +21 +17
Let's use the SPI now to evaluate a sample game: Let's say you've just walked into a downtown Las Vegas casino. The tables are about half-full (with 2 to 4 players at most tables), and the games are being dealt from 6-deck shoes. After observing for a few minutes, you note that the dealers tend to cut off about one and a half decks, so about 3/4 of the cards are being dealt out between shuffles. The standard downtown Vegas rules are in force, so dealer hits soft 17, double on any two cards. Stepping into the coffee shop, you check the Index. Under 6 decks, with 2-4 players, you get 18 points. With 75% of the cards dealt, you add 9 points to this, for a total of 27. Since the dealer hits soft 17, you subtract 9 points, bringing you back to 18 points. With a 1 to 8 betting spread—16 points—the SPI would total 34 points, and even with a 1 to 12 betting spread, the SPI would only get to 39 points. You might also note that if you could play heads-up with the dealer in this game, the SPI would go up to 49 points, bordering on playable.
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Tags: blackjack, online casino, scoring system